The short version
- September GST collections were strong — gross crossed ₹2 lakh crore (+14.7%), net rose 18.1% to ₹1.77 lakh crore.
- But tax experts are flagging one thing: import GST grew ~26% while domestic GST grew ~10% — so a meaningful chunk of the headline buoyancy is import-led.
- The other watch-point is refunds: the ~13.5% fall in domestic refunds needs monitoring to keep business liquidity healthy.
- The call: watch the domestic revenue trend and refund pace in coming months — that's the real read on home-grown demand.
The September GST headline — ₹2.04 lakh crore, up nearly 15% — looks unambiguously good. But the tax community's reaction has been more nuanced: strong, yes, with two trends worth keeping an eye on beneath the surface.
The divergence experts are flagging
Domestic GST
₹1,37,996 cr
Import GST
₹65,525 cr
Import GST grew roughly two-and-a-half times as fast as domestic collections. As experts put it, that means a meaningful part of the headline growth is coming from imports rather than the home market — which is why the domestic trend, not the top line, is the number to track.
"GST collections remain strong, but it's interesting to see that domestic revenues grew 10.1% compared with almost 26% growth in import GST. This suggests a meaningful part of the headline buoyancy is coming from imports."
— Pratik Jain, Partner, Price Waterhouse & Co LLP"The ₹2 lakh crore mark, with growth of close to 15%, shows domestic demand continues to do well. One thing worth noting is that GST on imports is growing much faster than domestic collections."
— Saurabh Agarwal, Tax Partner, EY IndiaOne expert suggested the import trend could even warrant a reassessment of some production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes to strengthen domestic manufacturing further — a reminder that tax data feeds directly into industrial policy.
The second watch-point: refunds and liquidity
The other theme was refunds. Faster or slower refund processing directly affects how much working capital businesses have tied up. Experts welcomed the broader refund picture for liquidity, but flagged the 13.5% decline in domestic refunds in September as something to monitor.
"Domestic revenues grew 10.1% to ₹1,37,996 crore, while import revenues surged 25.9% to ₹65,525 crore. The 13.5% decline in domestic refunds warrants close monitoring to ensure liquidity for businesses."
— Vivek Jalan, Partner, Tax Connect Advisory Services LLPWhy refunds matter to you
For exporters and businesses with inverted duty structures, a GST refund is real cash flow — money sitting with the government until it's processed. When refund pace slows, that working capital stays locked up longer. If you have refund claims pending, this is the season to make sure they're filed cleanly and followed up, not left to drift.
What to watch in the months ahead
- Domestic GST growth. Sustained double-digit domestic growth is the true signal of home demand — watch whether it holds or softens.
- The import–domestic gap. A persistent gap favouring imports has implications for manufacturing policy and the rupee.
- Refund turnaround. Track how quickly domestic refunds move — it's a direct liquidity lever for your business.
- Your own filings. Accurate, timely returns and clean refund claims are how you make sure the macro trend works in your favour, not against it.
Refund stuck or returns piling up?
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Talk to our GST teamDisclaimer: This article reports expert commentary on official September 2026 GST data, current as at the date of publication. Figures are provisional and as reported; views are those of the quoted experts. This is general information, not investment, legal or tax advice. Please verify figures from official sources and consult a professional before acting.